Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Venezuela next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef66e30d1a46a18617ee45f5e811991bd6da5692b4e659241805f147ecddc02e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 0c | 20,451$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…2892backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 9,207$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 1c | 6,571$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…af6cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,058$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 4,765$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…caf7backed Yes | 3c | 3,102$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 0c | 2,879$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,406$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 2,208$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,932$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,748$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,723$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,723$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…7952backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e415backed Yes | 2c | 1,510$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe586…d402backed Yes | 1c | 1,475$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…67b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cf…f9f6backed Yes | 1c | 1,032$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…0ab4backed Yes | 1c | 1,012$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…66a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -80%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 3c | 958.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 951.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 2c | 889.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…06a9backed Yes | 2c | 805$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bf…cb8ebacked Yes | 2c | 726.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 2c | 662.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…fa32backed Yes | 5c | 380.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 3c | 379.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 7c | 225.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba nexNo won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.