TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x91dc…2813

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: La Liga, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST2030%6 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$48.02
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$56.9
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+31.7%+$24.07
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$16.08
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+53.6%+$53.61
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$28.79
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+107.3%+$32.19
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on January 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+177.8%+$35.56
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or below on January 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$39.97
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on January 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+86%+$21.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on January 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+41.4%+$16.56
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on January 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 20 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$905Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$905.2
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+339.2%+$702.8
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$192
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+244.8%+$35.5
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+98.7%+$49.36
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+61.1%+$73.27
Portsmouth FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$19.58
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UIC Flames vs. Illinois State Redbirdsbacked UIC Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+404.6%+$161.84
Hampton Pirates vs. Charleston Cougarsbacked Hampton Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Washington State Cougars vs. Saint Mary's Gaelsbacked Washington State Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30
California Golden Bears vs. Virginia Tech Hokiesbacked California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 4 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+123.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+132.6%+$48.15
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.