Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31cf6a553c5c085b0266e69736ab739f61d4b83ca8d32f52ca7f6343094febf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 78c | 1,444$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.54 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 925.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed No | 23c | 733.69$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 62c | 725.59$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.53 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 14c | 699.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…fefbbacked Yes | 54c | 648.49$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 539.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 55c | 534.07$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.21 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x452c…2e1cbacked Yes | 51c | 510$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 398.57$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.97 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…5c16backed No | 12c | 367.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…4f06backed No | 49c | 361.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 356.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…4630backed No | 73c | 270.89$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 31c | 261.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…2edfbacked No | 17c | 258.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 75c | 256.47$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…8e8cbacked Yes | 49c | 246.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 62c | 229.84$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 7c | 222.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 59c | 218.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 64c | 218$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 49c | 203.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 28c | 197.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked No | 10c | 192.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…18a2backed Yes | 77c | 188.62$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 181.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked Yes | 65c | 168$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 39c | 155$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 41c | 152.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 48c | 144.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…16dfbacked No | 51c | 143.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 138.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…0002backed No | 33c | 130.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a14…2513backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 55c | 114.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…f282backed No | 29c | 112.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 102.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0a…a064backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…86f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbe…b19bbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…ab1bbacked No | 11c | 99.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 37c | 98.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 96.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd444…0083backed No | 21c | 94.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…2867backed No | 28c | 93.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 12c | 93.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 47c | 93.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 89.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…b9edbacked No | 31c | 89.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…a69abacked Yes | 79c | 88.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 45c | 80.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked No | 52c | 77.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 73c | 72.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 75c | 65.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…0839backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 59.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe98…286cbacked No | 29c | 58.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…7dd0backed No | 32c | 55.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 47c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed Yes | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1a…365fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…878abacked Yes | 48c | 46.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 54c | 46.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 51c | 44.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a0…1082backed No | 27c | 43.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…6edbbacked Yes | 44c | 42.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…fee0backed Yes | 38c | 39.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647c…59b4backed No | 54c | 38.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…bd6abacked Yes | 54c | 34.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 53c | 34.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…9a3bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed No | 71c | 30.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…9e7cbacked Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed Yes | 51c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…bc6bbacked Yes | 49c | 20.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 78c | 20.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…28abbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on January 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.