Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2036598d57076c120963ead74da10bcdeaee60e534dcbff7e17fb36ca2a2923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadba…3625backed Yes | 46c | 3,000$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…ada8backed No | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,041$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 9c | 772.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 2c | 622.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 79c | 556.75$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 57c | 439.43$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.31 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 9c | 415.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 12c | 394.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 367.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 15c | 286.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 265.12$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 255.49$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…8e8cbacked Yes | 52c | 212.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…9047backed No | 72c | 208.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf9…b9edbacked Yes | 15c | 193.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 60c | 185.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a14…2513backed Yes | 8c | 183.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…2edfbacked Yes | 10c | 170.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 55c | 158.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 35c | 155$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 63c | 154.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…0002backed Yes | 15c | 148.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Yes | 70c | 143.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 63c | 123.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 42c | 123$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…fc48backed No | 38c | 113.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 51c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…2867backed Yes | 13c | 89.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 82.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 61c | 81.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 50c | 74.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 74.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a0…1082backed Yes | 17c | 71.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…5ab0backed Yes | 50c | 70.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 40c | 68.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 49c | 67.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 42c | 58.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 31c | 55.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 42c | 52.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…f282backed Yes | 32c | 51.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a90…2df4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 55c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…f1b1backed Yes | 37c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cad…93f5backed Yes | 46c | 32.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 48c | 27.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…878abacked Yes | 67c | 26.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606c…5d56backed Yes | 44c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0089…7c42backed No | 61c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…f8c2backed No | 61c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc94…a5fabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on January 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.