Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52aeae43d526c1b27eb492294c59a322e00eba44b45da2ab8c07a0e86228158c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa630…8d42backed Yes | 1c | 3,958$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 75c | 627.91$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…f325backed Yes | 29c | 598.65$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 80c | 479.85$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 175.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6414backed Yes | 32c | 156.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 18c | 150.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 33c | 145.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 32c | 125.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 69c | 118.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 21c | 114.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 38c | 106.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 98.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x795c…8129backed Yes | 20c | 94.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed Yes | 25c | 91.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 29c | 84.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 72.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 80c | 72.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 69.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 68c | 67.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 59.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…d40cbacked Yes | 30c | 57.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 69c | 53.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…1482backed No | 80c | 49.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 68c | 48.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 68c | 48.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 59c | 38.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…ddccbacked No | 80c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…e081backed No | 74c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…200dbacked Yes | 67c | 17.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…d3c7backed No | 79c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a5…5138backed Yes | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.