Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec57a3ae8a5f2fc51c2294948f311ff91ab24932f0ce002d3b82df8cf24bcfb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa630…8d42backed Yes | 1c | 2,057$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 1,105$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 415.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…8a4abacked No | 56c | 352.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 280.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 257.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6414backed Yes | 57c | 244.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 26c | 228.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 41c | 226.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 186.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 184.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 124.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…6b31backed Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 37c | 114.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 22c | 112.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 50c | 110.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 43c | 92.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 92.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed Yes | 40c | 81.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 78.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 66.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 62.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 48c | 59.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 46c | 59.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…200dbacked Yes | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 44c | 43.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed No | 62c | 43.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 58c | 43.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…e547backed Yes | 49c | 40.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…f0a5backed Yes | 33c | 40.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 46c | 39.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 66c | 30.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 49c | 29.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 43c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 50c | 25.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 49c | 22.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 70c | 22.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…6f48backed Yes | 69c | 21.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…4df4backed Yes | 58c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…eb29backed Yes | 54c | 18.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…18f5backed Yes | 59c | 17.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.