Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x697f23140eade7aa6aa74d9d2b9b65db06020302ca3a5111de982dba33c1aba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Yes | 0c | 15,861$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 11,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 2c | 1,082$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 416.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 6c | 393.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 354.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 33c | 348.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 346.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 9c | 327.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 5c | 276$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 9c | 268.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 212.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 178.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 64c | 156.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1a…365fbacked Yes | 23c | 145.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…bd6abacked Yes | 20c | 145.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 131.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 120.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 111.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…3b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 100.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 62c | 100.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…0839backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 19c | 69.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…14b5backed Yes | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…03f1backed Yes | 43c | 41.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 29.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.