Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96cdf758184849cf8f58c4c737ac9fe328dcbc4a829dc4c614fd150575c88d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 10c | 731$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 7c | 721.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 62c | 498.73$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.84 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 381.39$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 16c | 261.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…0f11backed No | 14c | 246.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 13c | 235.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 80c | 204.77$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 184.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…69d5backed No | 45c | 165.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…4630backed Yes | 79c | 155$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 52c | 152.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked No | 18c | 152.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…8322backed No | 8c | 136.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed No | 25c | 131.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…0002backed No | 14c | 120.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…ddc1backed No | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 103.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 20c | 102.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 98.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…de45backed Yes | 75c | 96.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 36c | 85.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 77.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 59c | 68.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked No | 45c | 55.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 54c | 55.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…cf0cbacked Yes | 62c | 49.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 68c | 48.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 62c | 48.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 68c | 42.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 70c | 41.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked No | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 37c | 35.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…0bcabacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…38c5backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe818…98f4backed Yes | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 43c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…0bfabacked Yes | 75c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 45c | 25.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9f2ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…0839backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b8…e022backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…b4d2backed Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…88debacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…586ebacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4981backed Yes | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.