Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03bb5fdf2ab66f74278f17cf4faf6f36154080b044789131cb2ef831834f4373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91dc…2813backed No | 1c | 2,576$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 43c | 1,118$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 48c | 764.97$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.79 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 63c | 632.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…e9d2backed No | 37c | 506.27$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 69c | 434.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…0047backed Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…1aaabacked No | 21c | 400$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b6…f8d1backed No | 50c | 396.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 54c | 369.98$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 55c | 353.69$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…25fbbacked No | 51c | 351$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 65c | 321.21$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 4c | 321.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 52c | 301.84$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 60c | 300.46$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 4c | 297.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 51c | 289.37$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 253.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 59c | 202.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 45c | 195.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…90cbbacked Yes | 61c | 195.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…abc2backed Yes | 39c | 180$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 162.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…8ef9backed Yes | 48c | 161.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 67cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51cd…69efbacked Yes | 73c | 136.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed No | 26c | 136.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…c659backed Yes | 52c | 116.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed No | 37c | 111.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…30ffbacked No | 19c | 109.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 58c | 107.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68b3…f687backed No | 47c | 106.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…cf1fbacked Yes | 45c | 101.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…ea38backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 42c | 90.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 52c | 82.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…66bcbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 77c | 73.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…85babacked Yes | 59c | 67.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5458…2c0bbacked No | 52c | 67.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…645cbacked No | 37c | 67.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 63c | 59.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…d19abacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…3b63backed Yes | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked Yes | 64c | 45.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 49c | 44.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…f4e7backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 65c | 41.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…bfdebacked Yes | 48c | 41.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…63fcbacked Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked Yes | 63c | 34.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 34cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…4b4fbacked No | 63c | 31.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…09b6backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -73%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…b4b6backed Yes | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 66c | 27.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…7abdbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…3ddcbacked Yes | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…90debacked Yes | 65c | 22.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…6715backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…ca21backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba6…0fbdbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218a…9f99backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776e…f78cbacked Yes | 80c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drill" or "Drilling" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gallon" or "Barrel" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" 7+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.