Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b187000e1dec922fef5e43ab7e0584637cb251b7f6c115a931786c5cc7b812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 60c | 567.76$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 37c | 465$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 25c | 394.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 78c | 385.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 24c | 274.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 28c | 222.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 63c | 181.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed No | 41c | 175.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 30c | 170.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396a…d87ebacked No | 32c | 147.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…4d5abacked No | 36c | 110.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…21cdbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10c…002bbacked No | 43c | 81.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 53c | 80.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed No | 31c | 76.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…bfedbacked Yes | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…f3c8backed Yes | 71c | 70.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…3639backed No | 44c | 56.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 40c | 54.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…50b7backed No | 39c | 51.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb047…3cb4backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Yes | 68c | 41.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 40.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0b…e325backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…4e40backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 59c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…7909backed Yes | 58c | 34.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…0854backed No | 49c | 34.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…951cbacked Yes | 80c | 31.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7888…d9c4backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +453.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc2…0540backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…64c8backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…4b4fbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 60c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd765…4ab1backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed Yes | 68c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drill" or "Drilling" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gallon" or "Barrel" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" 7+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.