TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,228 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe72…cb10backed No67c333$223 inLost-$223.111070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes33c333$110 inWon+$223.11966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaace…4d5abacked No46c254.46$117 inLost-$1171216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No22c253.37$55 inLost-$55.364134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes79c253.16$200 inWon+$53.166100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed Yes65c159.32$104 inWon+$55.641250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No47c105.31$49 inLost-$49.441315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes53c100$53 inWon+$474348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c97.29$36 inWon+$60.834641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No60c95.66$57 inLost-$57.42040%8 W · 12 L-4.9wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-40.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdaff…3f7dbacked Yes58c51.72$30 inWon+$21.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…0a66backed No23c50$12 inLost-$11.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed No33c50$17 inLost-$16.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No42c49.98$21 inLost-$20.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bc…93fbbacked No66c48.51$32 inLost-$32.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No44c44.57$20 inLost-$19.721457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b7…3aa5backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce8a…90debacked Yes55c36.16$20 inWon+$16.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a11…09b6backed No60c33.5$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-73%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes48c28$13 inWon+$14.62462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed No79c27$21 inLost-$21.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Yes53c20$11 inWon+$9.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f1…b251backed No53c20$11 inLost-$10.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick56cpaid-73.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9bb7…8ef9backed No71c17.82$13 inLost-$12.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick67cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.