Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd24ebd7bbecfc8a55e305558dd37ada6c75353d9b545ac576fc58c664a7ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 49c | 486.12$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 388.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…2bedbacked No | 57c | 322$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 67c | 235$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 58c | 209.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…97bdbacked Yes | 55c | 182.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 75c | 160.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…bfedbacked Yes | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 41c | 119.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…0047backed Yes | 60c | 86.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 40c | 82.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…6f84backed No | 40c | 74.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…f470backed Yes | 59c | 58.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…da03backed Yes | 59c | 53.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 44c | 46.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…64c8backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 38.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…6995backed Yes | 55c | 36.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 69c | 35.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…8688backed Yes | 57c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…3be4backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…7909backed Yes | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…b251backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 56cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…0854backed No | 69c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drill" or "Drilling" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gallon" or "Barrel" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" 7+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.