TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,461 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes61c660$405 inWon+$254.63063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No54c508.29$274 inLost-$273.9360%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed No49c454$222 inLost-$222.42742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No39c400$154 inLost-$1544134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No43c154$66 inLost-$66.221526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e14…86f0backed Yes79c140.04$110 inWon+$29.811258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes57c100$57 inWon+$433256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38cf…7148backed No21c100$21 inLost-$21450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9eb…bfedbacked Yes53c94$50 inWon+$44.18785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes50c60$30 inWon+$301435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes57c54$31 inWon+$23.227041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0192…6995backed No53c42.2$22 inLost-$22.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes49c40.54$20 inWon+$20.684641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a11…09b6backed No53c37.74$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick57cpaid-73%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaff…3f7dbacked Yes80c18.83$15 inWon+$3.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.