TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5874…6b11backed No67c248.02$167 inLost-$166.932835.7%10 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaace…4d5abacked No68c219$150 inLost-$1501216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc347…97bdbacked Yes56c152.78$85 inWon+$67.78977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes32c114$36 inWon+$77.524134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9eb…bfedbacked Yes49c102$50 inWon+$52.02785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93f9…8688backed No51c102$52 inLost-$52.02425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes32c100$32 inWon+$681566.7%10 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+110.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes32c97.81$32 inWon+$66.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68b3…f687backed Yes54c92.78$50 inWon+$42.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c9…1553backed Yes63c63.49$40 inWon+$23.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…0a66backed No20c50$10 inLost-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bb7…8ef9backed No69c46.71$32 inLost-$32728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick67cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No24c43.82$11 inLost-$10.523040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No37c42.9$16 inLost-$15.871225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes80c37.5$30 inWon+$7.513100%13 W · 0 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3d3e…061cbacked Yes63c31.75$20 inWon+$11.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0119…f1fbbacked Yes76c26.48$20 inWon+$6.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c25.17$10 inLost-$10.24641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes76c20$15 inWon+$4.82030%6 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f1…b251backed No61c20$12 inLost-$12.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick56cpaid-73.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes54c18.73$10 inWon+$8.621361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdde…069fbacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.