Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536533e4fcfa5148ce7489d50d0ab4d3dbab35fc369efa83cbceaa01941cf666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 79c | 220$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 68c | 109.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaace…4d5abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba6…0fbdbacked No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 21c | 97.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 45c | 61.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 31c | 55.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 76c | 52.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…0a66backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…3803backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…7909backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 32.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked No | 62c | 26.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drill" or "Drilling" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gallon" or "Barrel" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" 7+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.