Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd77eb189a4e8835ea60234ce037a26a361659794700610a222f2136f0cb49589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 5,160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…a5adbacked No | 2c | 3,724$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 6c | 1,584$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 46c | 696.67$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +168%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…e9d2backed No | 41c | 425.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 72c | 422.48$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.88 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 35c | 384.78$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.07 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed No | 47c | 352$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 37c | 330.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 63c | 268.95$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 21c | 243.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cd…69efbacked No | 42c | 238.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 230$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 62c | 223.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 54c | 203.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…6e99backed No | 21c | 141.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked No | 16c | 131.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 59c | 121.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked No | 13c | 119.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 59c | 108.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 66c | 104.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed No | 20c | 101.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 68c | 93.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…8f14backed No | 58c | 92.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 33c | 79.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 76.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4806…417cbacked Yes | 68c | 59.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 52c | 44.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 43.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb7…8ef9backed No | 70c | 42.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 67cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…172fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 37c | 38.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 67c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…3639backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…3ddcbacked Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…6995backed Yes | 55c | 29.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0119…f1fbbacked No | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 57c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 42c | 26.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920c…01e5backed Yes | 52c | 25.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be8…53b2backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b30dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…9bd3backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Border" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Doug" or "Burgum" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Drill" or "Drilling" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gallon" or "Barrel" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Illegal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Invest" or "Investment" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Dictator" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "ICE" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during oil executive meetings on Friday?No won
- Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" 7+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.