Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd3c971a382cf9ee28afc6069295048c1e67299c81bed15cb552ebe7d33ce82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 44,145$2,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.18 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 4c | 28,875$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 6,013$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.16 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 5c | 5,551$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.95 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,537$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 3,035$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,032$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…5395backed Yes | 6c | 2,637$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 6c | 2,632$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 2,571$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 2,437$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 4c | 2,340$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,269$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 4c | 2,259$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,082$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 2,041$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,006$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,855$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…e158backed Yes | 5c | 1,829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…99b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,649$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,573$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 1,405$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,313$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,212$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 1,088$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 1,080$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 964.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 4c | 811.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 7c | 800$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 7c | 795.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 5c | 781.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 4c | 719.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 715.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…d7e3backed Yes | 7c | 704.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 612.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 593.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 9c | 592.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…256cbacked Yes | 5c | 565.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 10c | 553.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…fc00backed Yes | 6c | 460$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 6c | 439.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…9a0fbacked Yes | 4c | 425.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 422.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 5c | 412.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 6c | 406.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…640ebacked Yes | 6c | 406$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…b12dbacked Yes | 6c | 400.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…ed45backed Yes | 5c | 398.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35db…ca63backed Yes | 4c | 386.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed Yes | 7c | 380$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 371.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed Yes | 5c | 353.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 9c | 350.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked Yes | 4c | 334.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…e0debacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 5c | 286.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes | 7c | 278.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 276.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…559ebacked Yes | 5c | 272.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 8c | 265.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…3b97backed Yes | 4c | 258.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f3…17e6backed Yes | 6c | 247.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 9c | 222.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…6ca1backed Yes | 5c | 222.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 7c | 210.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…f752backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 6c | 189.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 180.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 6c | 179.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385c…6915backed Yes | 6c | 174.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 6c | 166.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…3794backed Yes | 13c | 159.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6467…f408backed Yes | 10c | 138.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.