TailMyPicks
Market

Premier League · resolved market

Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over42c45,728$19,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,205.655352.8%28 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under62c27,910$17,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,477.796,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d23…6c83backed Over0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Under58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over14c9,390$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.084,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Over43c9,286$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over41c8,679$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.8650644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under58c8,566$4,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,597.7230143.9%132 W · 169 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5f…4b52backed Under68c5,736$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.374671.7%33 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick75cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x753b…3d0fbacked Over43c4,269$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.6760%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72037054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c4…2852backed Under63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.991553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1828…cca5backed Under57c3,644$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf7e…339abacked Under68c3,451$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.143151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a5…98f9backed Under57c3,301$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under60c3,218$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.212454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbe…011abacked Under57c3,067$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.812100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d1…5682backed Under57c3,050$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad7…2b1fbacked Under57c2,850$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…43d1backed Under57c2,833$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over44c2,805$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.033930.8%12 W · 27 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-39.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5924…a3f8backed Under57c2,650$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62fe…c85abacked Over43c2,609$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2575…45abbacked Under57c2,450$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under77c2,285$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.5515772%113 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Over44c2,267$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.612339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked Over32c2,116$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.013441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over41c2,045$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.323231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86013837%51 W · 87 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under58c1,732$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.9324047.5%114 W · 126 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf009…3805backed Over43c1,680$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008236.6%30 W · 52 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under57c1,642$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.0615952.2%83 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d3…76b9backed Over43c1,621$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x290b…394abacked Over43c1,563$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1350…51b4backed Over43c1,550$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…fb82backed Over43c1,504$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5741…64b8backed Over43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf06…b8d1backed Over43c1,450$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6025…32fcbacked Over43c1,446$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9570…87dbbacked Over43c1,400$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under58c1,388$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.41,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eab…46eebacked Over43c1,387$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea23…a468backed Under57c1,353$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf562…5660backed Over43c1,350$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a9…5501backed Over43c1,300$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over43c1,298$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55812639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a59…2d45backed Under57c1,256$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4d…ad45backed Over43c1,250$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under57c1,238$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.272,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over43c1,221$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5252236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd345…ce67backed Over43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51640%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4106540%26 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4302951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44045936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43040953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b3c…0de9backed Under59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3695154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7fd…6c23backed Over12c868.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Under58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.073339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Under57c852.33$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.540046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over32c804$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6112136.4%44 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under68c735.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.374156.1%23 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-20.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over29c650.16$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5123926.4%63 W · 176 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over39c641.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502450%12 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bde…ca3abacked Under57c625$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6029343.7%128 W · 165 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb50a…3348backed Over43c584.63$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.393938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2109134.1%31 W · 60 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Over43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010343.7%45 W · 58 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Over13c460.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6611234.8%39 W · 73 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf002…a69abacked Over43c451.15$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…7adfbacked Under57c450$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under58c449.08$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.6133753.1%179 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over44c425$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1878643%37 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Over40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508552.9%45 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under58c370$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.48655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under56c357$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0858445.9%268 W · 316 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8820054.5%109 W · 91 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under57c312$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1672249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under56c305.61$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4719253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over33c303$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995754.4%31 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over42c279.48$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3839156%219 W · 172 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd65…3e60backed Over37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004050%20 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Under57c242.11$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.111952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030645.8%140 W · 166 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Under57c204.39$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.895164.7%33 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d78…d82ebacked Under60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Over24c194.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.544843.8%21 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Under60c175$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed Under58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.416547.7%31 W · 34 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75ef…cb71backed Under58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.414656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Under58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Under60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.676145.9%28 W · 33 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Under78c166$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8632164.5%207 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under62c155.79$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.797450%37 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over42c154$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.389346.2%43 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Under58c134.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.47062.9%44 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over41c126$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7716731.7%53 W · 114 L-18.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022244.1%98 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacd2…b83bbacked Over42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.