Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e20a05a28a3886cfa97bb86c03caf210755e9592d1b48e06bee2165cb9842e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 30,067$7,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,063.57 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 76c | 30,000$22,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d23…6c83backed Over | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 24c | 1,999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.76 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 24c | 1,753$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.67 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked Under | 76c | 1,428$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.73 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 604$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 23c | 590.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…e696backed Under | 76c | 491.03$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 108 | 74.1%80 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…a6c4backed Under | 76c | 350.29$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Under | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 75c | 231.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 24c | 200.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 80c | 186.1$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 23c | 132.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Under | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked Under | 76c | 129.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Under | 79c | 127.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Under | 79c | 126.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 21c | 104.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 99.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Under | 77c | 98.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…4cbebacked Under | 80c | 95.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…d82ebacked Under | 78c | 87.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Under | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 76c | 75.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Under | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 79c | 60.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 24c | 58.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…bf99backed Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Under | 76c | 45.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…8be2backed Under | 79c | 44.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Under | 76c | 43.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…ea3bbacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…6a16backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…a23cbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 77c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.