Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e81dc2c3521448c8a0b3b6a9cf051c36d31e8c5fdfece3e5045b45d9e1b17ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ac4…387ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 4,297$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed No | 1c | 4,189$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 3c | 3,315$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 2c | 2,700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0005backed No | 1c | 2,448$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…a303backed No | 2c | 2,201$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 2c | 1,904$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 5c | 1,306$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…ec26backed No | 2c | 559.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 6c | 504.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…2734backed No | 3c | 473.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 61c | 381.37$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 17c | 323.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 310.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 253.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 78c | 235.11$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 52c | 210$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…f4a6backed No | 10c | 209.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked No | 46c | 164.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 152.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 61c | 132.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 48c | 123.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 65c | 121.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 16c | 111.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…cc46backed No | 12c | 105.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 74.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 51c | 73.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…ef98backed Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 48c | 62.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 44c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 23c | 52.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 51.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…46d8backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 42c | 46.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…246abacked No | 64c | 46.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 58c | 43.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 57c | 42.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed No | 49c | 40.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 46c | 37.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes | 43c | 32.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 52c | 32.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…099abacked No | 37c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 60c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.