Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b6537b62fc23145c8854de3c8cb95e73a051d563fb461c143871c46d64988e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 0c | 9,303$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 5,800$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 449.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…de45backed Yes | 58c | 311.54$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 62c | 232.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 17c | 229.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…4396backed Yes | 22c | 222.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…c88ebacked Yes | 23c | 197.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 158.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 66c | 151.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 145.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 47c | 138.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 128.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…ad68backed Yes | 25c | 125.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…b979backed Yes | 42c | 118.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 117.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 37c | 106.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…8239backed Yes | 49c | 93.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 57c | 91.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…ab4bbacked No | 77c | 89.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…df03backed Yes | 23c | 86.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 84.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…0ad0backed Yes | 45c | 73.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 64.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 48c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 52.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…3717backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…26f8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…2e4cbacked No | 59c | 46.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…a206backed Yes | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe818…98f4backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 52c | 38.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 35.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…827dbacked No | 55c | 31.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…035cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 44c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…2925backed Yes | 54c | 27.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x737a…a29dbacked No | 58c | 17.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.