Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa419ba4326ad58894a833d2c50676df72621ba3828cb26df2c636db4f5c0674d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa630…8d42backed Yes | 1c | 13,048$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 4,061$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 3,639$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…00dcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,272$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 3,090$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 3,003$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,980$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,852$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,301$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 1,273$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de9…ed09backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 602.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 4c | 536.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 14c | 533.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 9c | 319.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…4513backed Yes | 7c | 304.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 10c | 237.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 226.51$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 207.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…0e7fbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +372.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 31c | 196.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…ec31backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…4519backed Yes | 14c | 166.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 16c | 137.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 79c | 119.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 32c | 115.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…f158backed Yes | 18c | 113.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 113.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 13c | 103.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…3dabbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 22c | 98.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 13c | 84.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed Yes | 13c | 84.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 18c | 83.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 83.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbde…1dd2backed Yes | 31c | 78.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes | 31c | 74.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1a…fb71backed Yes | 40c | 63.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked Yes | 34c | 52.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…a20fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…e547backed Yes | 26c | 45.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 79c | 23.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…d40cbacked No | 72c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.