Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702c7ae6f73714d6544a4ac7b79e9db0c2f078309692f88577e480cb329effea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 69c | 2,361$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.74 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 1,776$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 1,368$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.8 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 49c | 1,185$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.51 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,109$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.08 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…8d42backed No | 5c | 1,010$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 75c | 985.35$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.55 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 20c | 621.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 47c | 599.1$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.14 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…d9f3backed Yes | 58c | 537.16$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 418.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.35 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 31c | 391.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.44 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Yes | 31c | 376.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 11c | 309.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.82 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 58c | 298.89$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 64c | 287.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.14 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 57c | 280$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 39c | 273.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed Yes | 43c | 246.64$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 47c | 235.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 227.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 50c | 211.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 58c | 204.19$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 36c | 163.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…5593backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 74c | 147.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 67c | 146.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 35c | 144.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 43c | 138.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…4fa8backed Yes | 74c | 134.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 119.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 45c | 115.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 48c | 96.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 95.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 58c | 92.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…9717backed Yes | 40c | 90.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 40c | 86.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed Yes | 64c | 86.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…ec16backed Yes | 27c | 73.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 35c | 73.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 42c | 69.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 69.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 63.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 60.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…ec31backed Yes | 33c | 58.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…3a69backed Yes | 69c | 57.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…2925backed Yes | 46c | 54.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 48.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 38c | 48.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 47.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…d6dfbacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…2e4cbacked No | 29c | 40.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 40.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…eb7abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Yes | 63c | 38.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 64c | 38.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 39c | 35.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…d7fabacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 61c | 34.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…ca3cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…6bf3backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…b924backed No | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…200dbacked Yes | 58c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed No | 67c | 31.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4086…c7fcbacked No | 57c | 30.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…8b21backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…246abacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…1100backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…00b3backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 53c | 25.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…4795backed No | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…4e45backed No | 60c | 22.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…bd7cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…4f6cbacked No | 61c | 21.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 61c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed No | 63c | 19.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…fa8bbacked No | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a86…201abacked No | 63c | 18.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.