Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9873ec0d2fc3cbbb9b3c63e844b8fba972fd2d24a56e5be338414bedb3f2d3f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa630…8d42backed Yes | 1c | 18,929$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…b157backed Yes | 0c | 3,507$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 51c | 3,149$1,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.06 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e016backed Yes | 2c | 1,372$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 48c | 1,365$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.53 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,077$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.24 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed No | 70c | 673.87$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 21c | 615.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.07 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 26c | 572.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.47 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 32c | 501.81$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 44c | 491.17$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 75c | 469.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 469.59$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 26c | 398.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.55 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 372.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.63 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7d…0639backed Yes | 67c | 317.02$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes | 77c | 241.09$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.49 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 77c | 238.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.31 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8bf4backed No | 64c | 211.32$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 7c | 195.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 69c | 184.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 165.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…34c6backed Yes | 73c | 162.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed No | 66c | 158.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…4fa8backed Yes | 52c | 149.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 45c | 139.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 132.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 76c | 125.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 37c | 114.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 112.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 104.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…566dbacked Yes | 19c | 102.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 32c | 99.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…b658backed Yes | 20c | 99.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 96.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…9717backed Yes | 29c | 93.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 43c | 74.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 50c | 71.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Yes | 60c | 66.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…eed1backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 63.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 42c | 63.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 68c | 62.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ed…6d1bbacked Yes | 58c | 61.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 72c | 60.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…3dabbacked No | 80c | 59.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Yes | 20c | 59.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…ff76backed Yes | 20c | 59.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 23c | 54.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…31febacked Yes | 64c | 49.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…369dbacked Yes | 66c | 45.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 42.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed No | 72c | 33.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Yes | 79c | 31.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…e88dbacked Yes | 78c | 30.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…e627backed No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a5…5138backed Yes | 50c | 22.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…6446backed No | 79c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.