Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on US military by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0ca47efaff5155cf78d38b18753f46d7420e0d917297b0483936222e5a6fb39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 30c | 21,107$6,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,368.76 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 21c | 8,302$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.96 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 6c | 8,280$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.05 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 12c | 6,385$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.66 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 28c | 6,303$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.74 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 6,007$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 24c | 5,363$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.01 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 1c | 5,006$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 4,642$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.53 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…7b9ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,569$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.51 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…371ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,149$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 8c | 4,064$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbccd…d7bebacked Yes | 50c | 3,877$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed No | 55c | 3,800$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 3,559$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.57 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 59c | 3,434$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 8c | 2,955$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.79 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 73c | 2,903$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.38 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 73c | 2,713$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.54 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 80c | 2,636$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.63 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 53c | 2,505$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.04 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 15c | 2,208$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.28 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 2,200$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.97 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67fb…4ff6backed Yes | 5c | 2,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,081$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 74c | 2,021$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.37 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…575ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,014$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…7968backed Yes | 14c | 1,932$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9df…be72backed Yes | 31c | 1,920$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 6c | 1,767$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 71c | 1,761$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.6 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 44c | 1,729$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.85 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…1588backed Yes | 18c | 1,707$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,683$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.87 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed No | 60c | 1,666$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 68c | 1,558$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…d0a4backed No | 61c | 1,515$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 49c | 1,402$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.91 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…2438backed Yes | 15c | 1,352$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 71c | 1,329$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…94fabacked No | 62c | 1,292$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.96 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 52c | 1,285$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.26 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 7c | 1,270$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 63c | 1,250$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.31 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 7c | 1,162$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,156$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 40c | 1,151$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.26 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,125$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 44c | 1,124$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,040$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.72 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,037$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.22 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,031$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 72c | 999.98$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 71c | 999.55$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.39 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 917.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…fe2dbacked Yes | 23c | 900$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 885.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 2c | 849.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 73c | 841.52$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 28c | 836.09$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.52 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…9914backed Yes | 40c | 808$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 55c | 806.63$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.18 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b87…75d0backed Yes | 3c | 800.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9347…16efbacked No | 56c | 800$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 800$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 796.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked No | 59c | 785.74$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…d5b4backed Yes | 19c | 770.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…62d1backed Yes | 45c | 759.69$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 758.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…3571backed Yes | 28c | 747.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…d1b7backed Yes | 31c | 733.4$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 724.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 724.36$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 37c | 691.09$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.3 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…d959backed Yes | 14c | 686.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…d7e5backed Yes | 36c | 682.26$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 80c | 678.3$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…29e1backed Yes | 60c | 675.28$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…7740backed Yes | 59c | 674.64$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…0076backed Yes | 34c | 663.13$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 661.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed Yes | 16c | 644.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Yes | 30c | 626.33$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4875backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…59c1backed Yes | 17c | 605.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 12c | 592.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 7c | 585.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 79c | 582.36$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 33c | 579.13$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3678backed Yes | 34c | 576.47$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…9cc9backed No | 40c | 563.18$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84c…ec4abacked Yes | 7c | 558.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…2fc9backed Yes | 2c | 557$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked No | 74c | 540.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 55c | 528.5$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.33 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 66c | 520.42$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.