World Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff854d97ac4e37be63672f50e5e08b8ee7dc3e81b0e06dfe18231aab06b3c67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,357,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,232,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,357,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 984 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 12c | 43,065$5,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,136.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…dfdbbacked Yes | 38c | 38,238$14,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,430.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 33,200$7,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,282.48 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 76c | 31,304$23,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,542.64 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4a…0b5cbacked Yes | 42c | 29,926$12,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,698.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…6e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 27,444$7,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,785.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 16c | 24,416$3,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 71c | 19,621$14,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,609.2 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 65c | 18,507$11,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,546.75 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 61c | 17,331$10,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,701.31 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 10c | 13,982$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 11c | 12,020$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 68c | 10,878$7,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,527.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 10,866$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.29 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 78c | 10,753$8,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…767abacked Yes | 9c | 10,108$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 22c | 10,000$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29c…5631backed Yes | 18c | 9,889$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 9,646$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.67 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed Yes | 34c | 9,190$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 38c | 9,186$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…256ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,972$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.04 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…e184backed Yes | 23c | 8,598$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 5c | 8,440$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,365$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 7,685$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.23 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 18c | 7,543$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881f…ea6ebacked Yes | 6c | 7,406$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 64c | 7,365$4,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed Yes | 11c | 7,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…2303backed Yes | 29c | 6,801$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 6,696$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.83 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 58c | 6,407$3,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.4 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 58c | 6,173$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 59c | 6,000$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 33c | 6,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x285c…d137backed Yes | 22c | 5,966$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 9c | 5,905$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…5c11backed Yes | 16c | 5,630$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…7c16backed Yes | 9c | 5,564$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 18c | 5,555$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…2f5cbacked Yes | 65c | 5,470$3,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,572.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 37c | 5,235$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 58c | 4,977$2,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 4,868$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.65 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa780…1a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,658$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…1f1fbacked Yes | 42c | 4,651$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 9c | 4,250$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +245.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 75c | 3,952$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.07 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 26c | 3,885$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.4 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 3,817$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.21 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…e169backed Yes | 15c | 3,791$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 74c | 3,660$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…4d2cbacked Yes | 23c | 3,647$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…3bd2backed Yes | 36c | 3,600$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 63c | 3,549$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 65c | 3,487$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…8f8cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,447$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ce0abacked Yes | 29c | 3,392$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,342$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 79c | 3,236$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…fe2bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,216$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…1cc2backed Yes | 37c | 3,157$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed No | 71c | 3,134$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 77c | 3,109$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…71eebacked Yes | 22c | 2,970$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,939$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…0d97backed Yes | 35c | 2,894$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,893$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 60c | 2,878$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc07…5e27backed Yes | 39c | 2,863$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 2,808$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…5c95backed Yes | 25c | 2,766$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,729$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.36 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,720$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 69c | 2,707$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 66c | 2,685$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,644$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…548cbacked Yes | 39c | 2,628$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 74c | 2,553$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 66c | 2,547$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.52 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 20c | 2,513$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…8f9bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed Yes | 17c | 2,487$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed No | 64c | 2,475$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 8c | 2,472$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 76c | 2,458$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…35f3backed Yes | 23c | 2,451$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…f2edbacked Yes | 20c | 2,437$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…1adfbacked No | 66c | 2,254$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 76c | 2,232$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…97a3backed Yes | 25c | 2,187$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…e33abacked Yes | 32c | 2,149$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…b9b7backed Yes | 15c | 2,133$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 28c | 2,119$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 24c | 2,100$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?this page
- U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.