World Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43f857dfb0198020e4c4c05e1704ae961719d0f472bdd66b2661a0a0a519c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87d2…efb2backed Yes | 63c | 21,623$13,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,997.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 31c | 16,519$5,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,107.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed No | 69c | 14,929$10,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,267.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 72c | 9,704$6,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,716.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 27c | 7,441$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,429.94 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 34c | 7,288$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,829.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 34c | 6,313$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,161.46 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 11c | 6,308$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 35c | 6,224$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 59c | 5,909$3,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 5,165$3,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,734.35 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 4,702$3,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,462.14 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 4,246$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 56c | 4,245$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.4 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 36c | 3,683$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.96 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 48c | 3,669$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 3,440$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.7 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 75c | 3,109$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 75c | 3,073$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.18 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 3,001$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.45 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 39c | 2,976$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.76 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 21c | 2,751$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.48 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…6e6dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,459$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 65c | 2,419$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.33 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1af7…ff87backed Yes | 38c | 2,269$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…ac80backed No | 40c | 2,208$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 28c | 2,138$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.96 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 29c | 2,116$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.61 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…4399backed Yes | 35c | 2,107$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…4b33backed No | 78c | 2,101$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 43c | 2,077$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,949$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.27 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed No | 36c | 1,890$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 1,875$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.58 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 67c | 1,870$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.47 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 1,846$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.06 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…a6a2backed Yes | 26c | 1,821$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…548cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,730$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 27c | 1,694$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf181…3c1fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +286.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…7d26backed No | 48c | 1,512$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 35c | 1,490$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.25 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +8.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +105%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 1,416$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.33 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 80c | 1,348$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked No | 67c | 1,300$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,283$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa527…9767backed Yes | 26c | 1,277$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +282.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed No | 67c | 1,271$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 52c | 1,210$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.84 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 40c | 1,208$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.63 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 1,175$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.75 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…7d9ebacked No | 59c | 1,127$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,124$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.3 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 39c | 1,100$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…b61fbacked No | 22c | 1,090$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,073$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 67c | 1,061$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.15 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 77c | 1,037$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…7a23backed Yes | 47c | 1,032$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 20c | 1,015$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.46 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 31c | 1,014$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 55c | 1,000$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.67 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 987.35$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…ae83backed No | 64c | 907.51$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 899.99$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 72c | 869.15$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 64c | 867.4$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5178…06debacked Yes | 20c | 850$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…070abacked No | 76c | 823.25$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…73f6backed No | 46c | 820.97$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 42c | 798.2$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.78 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…abc7backed No | 65c | 770.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…28e9backed No | 13c | 744.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…adbebacked No | 11c | 743.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 35c | 741.69$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…b94abacked No | 35c | 720.78$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 41c | 714.61$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 49c | 705.42$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.42 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…af13backed No | 59c | 661.09$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…19a1backed No | 31c | 639.74$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 32c | 613.68$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…6dd7backed No | 17c | 602.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 588.29$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.73 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 41c | 573$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.37 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 51c | 550.98$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 50c | 546.38$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…7393backed No | 70c | 539.16$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…2af3backed No | 43c | 527.28$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 522.43$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.47 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 28c | 514.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbe…b9dcbacked Yes | 17c | 505$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +484.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…b95abacked Yes | 74c | 502.52$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed No | 68c | 500.68$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked No | 62c | 500$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 56c | 499.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 35c | 498.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 31c | 476.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.31 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?this page
- U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.