TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x95e5…19a1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+93.5%+$94.25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+150%+$72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$135.05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.4
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$115.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+75.2%+$75.95
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$28.08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+106.2%+$103
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.8
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$55.2
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+78.9%+$80.7
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$20.02
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$36.55
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.64
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.94
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.9
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$23.36
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$82.8
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.68
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$77.07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+74.2%+$37.05
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$54
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$57.95
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$58.83
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$400.04
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+138.1%+$406
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$46.2
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.91
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$31.98
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+48.8%+$129.56
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.15
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$148
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+198.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+198.5%+$438.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$65.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.