TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$986,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,037,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $986,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes9c132,121$11,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,331.541010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe418…0e52backed Yes37c89,321$33,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,048.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7861…1104backed No63c88,527$55,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,755.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…6c1bbacked No76c50,923$38,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,221.523100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab8…a6d6backed Yes24c50,923$12,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,221.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd4b…75eabacked Yes12c34,952$4,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,206.14911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-84.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes2c30,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c12,906$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.5233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No77c12,075$9,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.187041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes9c11,307$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.6535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…531dbacked Yes29c10,490$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.1350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes20c10,000$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.911010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No74c9,440$6,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.797354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No77c9,131$7,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.252737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No71c7,306$5,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.9411336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes1c5,328$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes9c5,205$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.465343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No68c5,192$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.6410055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes27c5,172$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.4317850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55ba…16d1backed Yes11c5,033$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No58c4,738$2,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.82369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No73c4,497$3,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.310950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes12c4,166$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.9341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes13c3,939$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.9918746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No72c3,676$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.222657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf88e…74b7backed No74c3,365$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c3,115$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.6520446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes30c3,066$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9335532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes1c3,014$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No71c2,885$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.622347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes9c2,768$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.29195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x762a…be8abacked Yes19c2,680$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,663$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.551,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes56c2,599$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.4337844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes17c2,424$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4122222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No63c2,355$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.5837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes28c2,185$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No60c2,168$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.1916943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes21c2,108$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.0155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes31c2,054$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked Yes33c1,976$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.011546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8098…4628backed Yes27c1,830$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f15…303fbacked Yes19c1,804$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Yes6c1,703$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes28c1,686$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.321936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+203.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes28c1,641$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.514914.3%7 W · 42 L-6.7wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-54.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes16c1,636$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.023164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No52c1,600$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.8512649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes38c1,592$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No47c1,569$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.827045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa93a…0f5cbacked Yes21c1,562$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.97850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes24c1,429$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.62147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6319…adefbacked Yes29c1,395$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,350$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked No71c1,349$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.321020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No55c1,321$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.887420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes4c1,251$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.595149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No51c1,246$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.113556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No77c1,212$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.628750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No79c1,175$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No63c1,170$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.163844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes22c1,165$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.06419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No74c1,151$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.6617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No77c1,150$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes23c1,114$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.621414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe795…6068backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes5c1,100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.424814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f5…0febbacked Yes5c1,086$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3660%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes25c1,085$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.67828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes35c1,074$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.7528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes15c1,032$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7915032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes46c1,025$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.511435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes20c982$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5111347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c979.14$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4666…c42fbacked Yes10c968.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes53c946.38$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.7616854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd480…4377backed No74c939.87$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No74c914.27$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23510324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes8c907.35$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.511466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes52c900.54$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6812619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed No74c860.73$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.43652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes2c800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No55c799.98$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.994637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c799.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd188…f605backed No63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.651428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d4…b8f4backed Yes32c782.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c734.88$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No70c730$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2191947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes26c729.39$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked No65c714.48$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes35c700$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d2…5c8bbacked Yes20c696.86$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes31c694.87$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.