TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$414,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$396,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb403…06f0backed No11c50,558$5,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,561.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No6c12,084$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.0122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No1c10,912$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.22368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c10,017$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.03580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c7,944$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.932400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No10c7,000$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.5510324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c6,980$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.763989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No5c6,872$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.51170%0 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No8c6,691$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.477441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf5…a5e4backed No11c6,429$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed No4c6,080$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.841822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-56%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No1c5,791$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1912649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed No20c4,121$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.442020%4 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked No6c3,933$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1937…d1ebbacked No3c3,528$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed No1c3,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No2c3,271$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.911646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf485…53ccbacked No19c3,263$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.71714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c8…c77fbacked No5c3,133$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.551030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,968$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.291,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed No2c2,772$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.341233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No6c2,710$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5810324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked No2c2,647$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.491127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked No8c2,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.22330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed No3c2,260$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.443333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No7c2,015$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1813029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked No11c2,000$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.751612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…a1fabacked No1c1,594$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-81.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No11c1,413$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2411541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No14c1,220$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1723639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No15c1,100$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1691833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed No14c1,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-79.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb15a…ea08backed No19c980$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d44…d9adbacked No3c909.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No13c859.23$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.92737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No2c836.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bb4…d639backed No3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x364d…1739backed No3c799.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No22c772.81$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7214241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc69f…ceb0backed No2c764.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…b754backed No18c746.08$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.581435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc37b…7808backed No3c744.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c714.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No3c701.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.696618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1587…3fabbacked No3c657$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No8c620$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.843122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked No9c615.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f32…1532backed No17c605.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf75a…365ebacked No7c579$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed No8c556.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4290%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No11c550$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.513537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d73…f538backed No9c528.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dd…1807backed No5c520$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80140%0 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No10c481$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.484522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bdc…16d9backed No21c458.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed No5c446.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.011315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d7…512abacked No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No5c386.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3433627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcace…f2f6backed No17c382.79$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ada…bc8fbacked No5c351$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7098…d87bbacked No6c335.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No22c327$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3617238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No11c315.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.545343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8bc…acc9backed No6c302$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…0439backed No16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…4638backed No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…6638backed No7c292.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e55…41fcbacked No12c281.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+75.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No6c279.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.042154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No6c278$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.955635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No9c265.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.269533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e7…83f2backed No12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No13c239.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x895e…609fbacked No16c238.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes78c228$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.244934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No8c218.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.477728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No8c214.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6724035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ced…c4a8backed No19c213.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No12c213.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.022334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e51…2e97backed No6c212.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No14c201.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.145437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81e0…4fcebacked No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed No6c196.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked No8c196.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…05d0backed No12c195$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.211020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No23c188$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.244216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked No11c183.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe812…9db5backed No11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No13c159$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.226432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…1df2backed No11c148.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf33…d264backed No17c148.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No16c147.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.631,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb93…24a8backed No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.