TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$549,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$560,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fa5…16e3backed No43c70,216$30,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,023.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+192.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1c7…41babacked Yes57c70,216$40,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,023.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d03…31f1backed Yes46c46,122$21,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,216.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44c…c458backed No54c46,101$24,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,206.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1b…b5fabacked Yes52c34,233$17,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,801.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6eb…1d57backed No48c34,233$16,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,801.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd180…0c89backed No49c34,099$16,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,390.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf7…36c8backed Yes51c34,099$17,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,390.4920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2623…9454backed No59c24,657$14,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,109.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7da…63d7backed Yes41c24,657$10,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,109.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…06a7backed Yes42c23,708$9,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,957.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2da…682bbacked No58c23,708$13,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,957.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No56c7,039$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,098.797041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1472…468bbacked Yes1c5,942$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes21c3,198$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.2217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes39c1,674$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.9113029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No58c1,623$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.068450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes24c999.27$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.74419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes35c999.01$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.8910324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No58c991.37$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.667038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes17c990.88$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.388127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes35c836.87$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.628036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes8c823$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.842236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes32c700$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22618725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes8c680$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7218746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes17c660.25$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.725234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes34c656$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7819435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes31c630$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes19c599.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes18c556.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263d…d077backed Yes18c556.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab9…beb5backed No78c512.3$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes70c463$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.137533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes36c439.64$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7911541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes3c427.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.774957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c413.87$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes75c400$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29816943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes38c399.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No68c393.66$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.66256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes34c355$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes62c353$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.813537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c351.72$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes40c326.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.354131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No51c319.58$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.667447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996241.9%26 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef5…5ee2backed No80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.391717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes32c299$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.684934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes18c293.16$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.26253.2%33 W · 29 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes32c277.76$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.161855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No66c269.39$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.737441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c232.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.171,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No49c224$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3423639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes61c210$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.65149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes45c205$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.432433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12610035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No76c180.88$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.973452.9%18 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d1…8749backed Yes64c180.16$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.992352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e49…0b46backed No51c174.5$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-67.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes35c172.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.832842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No55c167.36$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.133938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes65c160$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10413943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68e…9179backed Yes16c159.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes19c148$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7913943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No42c141.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.713859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No74c140$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.42642.3%11 W · 15 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes21c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.421330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-50.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecca…3040backed Yes72c138.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c131.56$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes17c119.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes21c118.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab3…07fbbacked Yes52c116.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddfd…113fbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No69c100.87$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.414535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ee0…71f4backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b8…ec46backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fb…2771backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.022147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes55c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.55942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes54c99.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.912533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes17c95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.15147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-89%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab3…00fdbacked Yes44c91.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c53…7fcebacked Yes19c80.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes37c80.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.834936.7%18 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No25c79.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9412649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes65c77.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.256246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ee…96a0backed Yes23c76.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe010…6638backed No40c73.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…e21abacked Yes46c72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c7…ce35backed Yes42c71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes49c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.38544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No74c66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.165343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1520446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd38…92e2backed No49c64.02$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes62c62.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.59533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes50c60.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.232321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.24755.3%26 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1f…aa60backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cf…140cbacked Yes46c58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f0…a149backed Yes60c57.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.82040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.