Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2740eb4639f0370221acb46bb850c44a892cc4e0fd33568445c3d92fae85ef33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 4,928$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.73 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…f9fbbacked Yes | 6c | 4,711$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 7c | 1,295$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 4c | 1,290$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…c339backed Yes | 4c | 929.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 680.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 8c | 678$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 3c | 662.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 635.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 617$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 8c | 611.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 557.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f840backed Yes | 4c | 477.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 476.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 7c | 455.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 9c | 425.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…7060backed Yes | 7c | 420$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 7c | 416.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…8625backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…4c30backed Yes | 5c | 392$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…8593backed Yes | 3c | 338$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 328.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…a96ebacked Yes | 4c | 308$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 298.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…e5c7backed Yes | 4c | 288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…8e90backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…c805backed Yes | 5c | 274$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 7c | 271$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b4…0bcabacked Yes | 4c | 255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…589dbacked Yes | 4c | 251$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…49a1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 6c | 241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 6c | 232.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…907abacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…58d9backed Yes | 5c | 211.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a84…f4e1backed Yes | 5c | 202$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 8c | 200.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…8c56backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…e56bbacked Yes | 8c | 176.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 9c | 174.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ada6backed Yes | 9c | 173.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…4f09backed Yes | 8c | 126.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…6c53backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025?this page
- Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Oman in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?No won
- Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.