TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$424,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$432,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No0c50,733$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.058231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ef2…e986backed No46c28,365$13,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,047.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b7…5400backed Yes54c28,365$15,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,047.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b3…f830backed No3c12,379$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.241020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-73.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5257…f27ebacked No5c10,880$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c0…81d6backed No0c10,121$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c8,793$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.471,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes67c5,820$3,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.752842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No48c4,773$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,294.8722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c17…83c8backed No54c4,629$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No24c4,403$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.37441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No63c4,354$2,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,722.1517452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes72c3,426$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.0941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked No30c3,323$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.132245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes46c3,299$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.11735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No64c3,168$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.83262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No47c2,903$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.2813029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No11c2,756$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.1721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes33c2,692$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.9718746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No23c2,534$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.0112649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No60c2,474$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.858036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes42c2,379$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.2723149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No1c2,310$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.11338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No1c2,101$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No45c1,966$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No36c1,959$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.085635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked No70c1,949$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed Yes62c1,772$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+47.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No20c1,651$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.177834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No43c1,586$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.4111541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes55c1,557$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2b5cbacked No7c1,550$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed Yes66c1,524$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.61742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93a…8b69backed No7c1,513$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No62c1,438$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.772369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c1,402$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.8656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No40c1,342$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.2913943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No67c1,329$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.812927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes76c1,278$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.38450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes47c1,245$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.425851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.414125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes49c1,164$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.2932626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ce…97abbacked No4c1,159$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No29c1,130$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.414436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked No77c1,055$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.35742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No21c1,052$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.87419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No24c1,040$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2464032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf206…8cf6backed Yes58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+340.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.351136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.996256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No58c969.98$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.1710324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked No15c949$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.711910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ae…440ebacked No41c904.15$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed No56c900$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.291540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed No52c857.81$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…32b3backed No71c854.45$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes56c844.7$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.3414230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No3c827.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.882941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes24c817.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14d1…a24ebacked No26c751$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1740%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No56c729.58$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.921931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No71c704.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No64c704.16$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.922642.3%11 W · 15 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No70c700$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No55c662.68$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.4837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c6…d78ebacked No3c640.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No28c638.14$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.816842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No39c604.22$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.949533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046e…8fe5backed No17c602.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3543026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No54c600$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.248453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked No7c572.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No24c560.65$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.952737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16aa…d710backed No3c560.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes35c555$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.751216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes39c553.44$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.231421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes55c550.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.183735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes38c547.96$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.765642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No9c515.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.678615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes39c500.22$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9212839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37520446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ad…99a8backed No3c490.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030b…6254backed Yes26c475.03$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No24c472.43$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.447041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c467$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.631338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes54c463.07$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.8533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…907abacked No11c451.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No54c443$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.397556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes42c423.8$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.264839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes25c421.62$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+101.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed Yes73c410.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.181526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c7b…c339backed Yes25c402.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.184637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5a…408cbacked No9c399.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes35c385.6$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.613852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd231…7562backed No40c381.95$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes60c355.98$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No66c353.83$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.426838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes50c350$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.58544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.