TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,979
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,979 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No11c5,758$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.387146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5507041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked No8c3,298$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No12c3,054$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.0923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No7c2,672$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.922619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,469$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.833989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c2,330$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.062400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No5c2,151$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3713029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No5c1,993$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.356740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x142a…cd8dbacked No2c1,465$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked No14c1,331$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.11910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No13c1,114$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No13c1,100$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14316725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked No6c1,046$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.191741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No12c950$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8510324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…4443backed No5c860$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No4c800.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2622347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No11c721.55$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.343859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c589.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No16c511$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.14522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No16c500$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.115234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No6c464$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4111541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No15c452.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.55343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No11c415$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.653438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab3…00fdbacked No5c405$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe15c…152cbacked No14c400$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991a…d81abacked No5c386.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No8c386.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2114230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3914…7f71backed No6c339.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No6c336.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.432154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e55…41fcbacked No13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+75.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a56…272cbacked No5c298$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad6…b754backed No6c270.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x149e…8b3fbacked No7c264$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No11c250.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.024216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x921e…8589backed No5c231$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0142…3440backed No7c209.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2536…b8bbbacked No7c207$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd53d…3f4bbacked No6c179$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No12c178.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8511918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x389c…7e01backed No7c161$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a4…543fbacked No10c142.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No13c103.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4912649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fae…ce9fbacked No14c99.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.881926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked No15c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.254025%10 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.55942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.