TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,970 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf26…6198backed Yes8c10,773$833 inLost-$832.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c9,168$44 inLost-$43.521,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…531dbacked Yes11c7,921$868 inLost-$868.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c2,297$66 inLost-$65.9433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes13c1,964$250 inLost-$2503622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes8c1,123$85 inLost-$85.125639.3%22 W · 34 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c1,016$55 inLost-$55.396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ea…0882backed Yes34c844.9$290 inLost-$290450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31f9…428abacked Yes12c827.74$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes21c589.67$127 inLost-$126.72222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes10c500$50 inLost-$5012839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed Yes14c450.04$63 inLost-$63.011915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes25c365$90 inLost-$89.78419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked No78c355.99$277 inWon+$79.453467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c300$30 inLost-$29.5755618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes34c298.17$100 inLost-$1001850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes7c252$18 inLost-$17.6417633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c238.78$10 inLost-$10.2114624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No75c211$158 inWon+$52.752330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes12c200$23 inLost-$234528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes22c196.06$43 inLost-$43.125552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes32c156.5$50 inLost-$49.781020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d0…07acbacked No67c148.49$100 inWon+$48.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No69c112.62$78 inWon+$34.828441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes25c111$28 inLost-$27.751233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102045%9 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcb…e6f1backed Yes36c95.08$34 inLost-$34.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes13c85.17$11 inLost-$11.2733627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c6…577bbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost-$20.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc3…a71fbacked No76c32$24 inWon+$7.622231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-51.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd599…14b4backed No77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.975100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+71.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No78c20.42$16 inWon+$4.444459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.