TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,757,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,755,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,757,843 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 819 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8c2…c9c4backed No62c118,632$73,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,080.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb464…0b8cbacked Yes38c118,632$45,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,080.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes8c100,000$7,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,939.931010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c88,940$65,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,154.4969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa64…7643backed No56c67,121$37,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,533.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32d4…bdfebacked Yes44c67,121$29,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,533.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed Yes46c58,339$26,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,599.411656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d7…a31dbacked No66c56,805$37,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,313.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…e469backed Yes34c56,805$19,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,313.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc7…352bbacked Yes32c53,214$17,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,028.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3499…4f27backed No68c53,214$36,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,028.48366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f5f…9069backed No70c52,007$36,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,602.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7d…1033backed Yes30c52,007$15,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,602.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x659d…c7cfbacked Yes32c50,358$16,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,114.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cd…9ad1backed No68c50,358$34,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,114.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No66c20,688$13,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,093.5216943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c15,746$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.1933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d66…e2acbacked Yes34c15,119$5,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,196.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No55c14,525$7,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,571.367041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed No43c13,267$5,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,505.085100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2615…c16dbacked No68c11,956$8,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.262161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No71c11,177$7,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,234.9917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb464…caf8backed Yes8c8,631$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b28…69f6backed No53c8,569$4,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes31c8,492$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.5613029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes20c8,108$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612.85922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes9c7,399$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes9c7,298$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.78195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes23c7,220$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.0937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No54c7,100$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,248.8237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes2c6,291$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.424814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes47c6,000$2,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No51c5,770$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,824.517354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c5,306$3,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.5999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdcb2…c4c4backed Yes1c5,065$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes31c4,935$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.9711541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes48c4,759$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.5841238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes34c4,685$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No62c4,640$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.9923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6dc…3843backed Yes45c4,387$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9fd…cd86backed No60c4,333$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No56c4,300$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.9920446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15c…10d3backed Yes59c4,211$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes47c4,162$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.991010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes41c4,026$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.691428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes42c4,026$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.6210324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes44c3,723$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6399533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked No55c3,649$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29a9…de35backed Yes6c3,429$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e6…8675backed Yes59c3,387$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78e4…0659backed No60c3,333$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ba…16d1backed Yes6c3,312$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No46c3,241$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.116246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5ac8…96d2backed Yes40c3,108$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x381f…bc99backed Yes33c3,097$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf0…8783backed No65c3,000$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+116.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No69c2,909$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.978444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No70c2,857$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick64cpaid-60.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes10c2,820$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.852035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes32c2,782$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.17038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes47c2,767$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.977934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed0c…5e23backed Yes14c2,672$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.7425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,279$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.851,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccb4…ac9cbacked No50c2,271$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.771338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes18c2,256$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ece…f9fbbacked Yes19c2,205$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No44c2,186$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.28750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes30c2,113$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.0318746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No43c2,109$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.6910950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No48c2,070$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.6714241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes10c2,030$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.851540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433a…71e7backed No59c2,022$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.112825%7 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff69…1981backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6453…5553backed No52c2,000$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.181060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c1,983$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8311419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a8…0261backed Yes49c1,863$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.391747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes50c1,850$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.144042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6256…7181backed Yes10c1,840$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes37c1,818$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.953417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc934…76e1backed Yes50c1,802$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No12c1,752$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.2116535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes58c1,720$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.0221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf26…e5e5backed Yes8c1,711$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3f…71efbacked Yes6c1,710$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No51c1,698$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.821952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7a…2f36backed Yes6c1,658$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c1,654$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.041466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes55c1,644$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.3510127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes30c1,625$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.751844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked Yes34c1,602$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No47c1,600$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84110055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad4…0bacbacked Yes33c1,559$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes6c1,539$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8964…0becbacked No43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8551020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9f6…18bcbacked No68c1,464$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed No41c1,407$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.251040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7167…7878backed Yes8c1,390$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+117.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2e…a0cdbacked Yes7c1,371$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0554…1880backed Yes8c1,363$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes41c1,355$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.