TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,110 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c1,887$22 inLost-$2233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes17c1,274$223 inLost-$222.5113029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No74c1,200$882 inWon+$31837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes15c1,128$169 inLost-$169.241216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes26c1,000$258 inLost-$258633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes5c940.54$50 inLost-$503915.4%6 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes15c840.11$123 inLost-$1235111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No74c803.67$598 inWon+$205.8518445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes3c747.1$20 inLost-$203622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes15c514.36$79 inLost-$79.1528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes26c511.66$133 inLost-$133.4955618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c72…9b30backed Yes21c485.1$100 inLost-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c458.64$31 inLost-$31.131,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes10c434.71$44 inLost-$43.7256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes12c430.1$52 inLost-$51.612412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c421.4$11 inLost-$10.5796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes11c387.36$42 inLost-$42.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc447…f819backed Yes15c336.64$50 inLost-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885b…ecd8backed Yes8c312.5$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c225.44$171 inWon+$54.8799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c224$15 inLost-$15.421428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes16c220.64$35 inLost-$35.3195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes17c200$33 inLost-$333959%23 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes19c158.92$30 inLost-$302634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost-$201936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes15c109.12$16 inLost-$16.375234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No75c67$50 inWon+$16.755341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd06…d92dbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No72c33$24 inWon+$9.248750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c28.38$21 inWon+$7.664358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No75c20$15 inWon+$54751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b6…2f9fbacked No80c15$12 inWon+$33542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.