TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd228…997bbacked Yes14c6,700$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+667.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No76c4,619$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.657041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes10c2,140$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.895149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x046e…8fe5backed Yes39c2,032$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes26c1,300$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.824522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes25c1,233$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.593732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes13c1,209$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.983417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes27c1,135$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes11c917.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0053…f611backed Yes11c750.83$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes22c700$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No78c631.82$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.816943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c629.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.431,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ece…f9fbbacked Yes8c619.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe15c…152cbacked Yes20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes9c531$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes19c520$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.29533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No53c340$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0511347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes35c315.1$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.156842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7590…a62abacked Yes14c308.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.211216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes20c299$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7915924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c290.13$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No76c290$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.28646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes9c280$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.87714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…c7aabacked Yes23c261.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes22c251.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.339522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes17c217$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.754934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6631…ac7cbacked Yes10c209.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2210324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3df0…7791backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4c…3486backed Yes18c166.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.342821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecd…2c00backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bda…5e13backed Yes29c133.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+634.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…6638backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes22c133$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2612649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14d1…a24ebacked Yes68c121.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1340%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes10c110.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.067830.8%24 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes19c107.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcbf…1eb6backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+67.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7313…cbbcbacked No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44eb…c390backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e0…4fcebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133020%6 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf515…e56bbacked Yes17c92.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes19c91.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.846246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No56c90.31$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.744637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes17c88.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No79c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7513167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed No75c75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.754770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes32c61.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.573859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Yes31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes22c46.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.425241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92a0…4831backed No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.61070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.38256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf7…573abacked No77c14.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No76c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.367728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.