TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$462,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$459,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes79c73,822$58,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,497.753560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9c09…02cdbacked Yes38c59,836$22,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,098.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2cd…9ad1backed No62c59,836$37,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,098.32366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No31c58,478$18,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,289.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No61c37,097$22,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,675.287041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes34c31,782$10,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,027.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes75c24,730$18,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,247.3215032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Yes72c19,202$13,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,411.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed No5c18,759$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.94110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No35c15,113$5,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,245.537441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614e…4f1bbacked No1c13,295$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No11c10,780$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.037331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No31c10,298$3,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,163.092626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No24c10,210$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…3eecbacked Yes71c7,900$5,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.874100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+562.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No11c7,721$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.6313029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bb…3105backed No7c7,652$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.561625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcff4…9a75backed No8c7,168$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed No2c7,018$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed No5c5,331$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.471711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No16c3,600$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.3311347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No1c3,569$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2210330.1%31 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9e…82d2backed Yes71c2,955$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes69c2,880$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.812649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes34c2,493$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.833663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No1c2,283$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.132825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd30…ad89backed No9c2,100$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes37c2,069$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.8210324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa7…5458backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf356…d08bbacked No2c1,853$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes69c1,724$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.853737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae1…bab3backed No2c1,636$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No72c1,556$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.517354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No5c1,503$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.153148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes45c1,500$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8204557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes68c1,482$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.564528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No79c1,352$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.4520446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No42c1,319$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.8617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes28c1,297$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.7637844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No3c1,286$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.594240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes44c1,284$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.543467.6%23 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c1,272$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9211120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes26c1,142$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.668036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes52c1,141$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.244522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No6c1,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.672138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9032…10eebacked No6c1,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked No79c1,000$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1092…4e2fbacked No2c999.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff0…54e7backed No7c900$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a3…f56bbacked No4c900$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No69c849.97$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.483959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes46c848$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.65433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes65c844.27$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked No6c796.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No57c777.44$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.321546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes17c683.94$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.258127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c677.45$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.1996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No8c673.55$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9936527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No2c670.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5444…4853backed No4c663.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-75%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c658.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.841,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked No5c655.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2553…1ffebacked No9c651.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340d…0f96backed No9c623.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a5…4f7cbacked No9c619.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No62c612.15$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.3322347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No56c600.12$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.6437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes54c600$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27816943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x356d…ef13backed No5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c579$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6511010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c567$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8544111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Yes28c556$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.361145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes53c550$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26113943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f90…5b7ebacked No4c514.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15c…152cbacked No44c506$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.411233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe747…bcacbacked No2c502.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21510632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes38c498.51$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.357420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No68c485$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.811336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes51c481.84$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.11428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e4…45cebacked No10c412.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd175…bb3abacked Yes49c408.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No13c408.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.067739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes47c405.43$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes41c400$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.755635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked No51c397.8$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.881758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+112.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6319…adefbacked Yes51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No66c386.37$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.48450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes32c385$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.84032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes51c373$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.353333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No45c330$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.65234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes17c318.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.3713341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd562…c28abacked Yes32c311.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No51c310.4$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.411848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ad…e148backed Yes24c300$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.651782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+55.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes41c290.24$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.63119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e3…fd58backed No71c283.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-73.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.