TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,372 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe0a2…a349backed No6c5,446$331 inLost-$330.7822347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c3,376$37 inLost-$37.032400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf409…e0fabacked No2c1,285$22 inLost-$21.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No1c1,000$10 inLost-$105149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No2c576$12 inLost-$12.442433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No21c300$64 inLost-$63.9511541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes67c250$166 inWon+$83.5912619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbbd…eec1backed Yes71c140.93$100 inWon+$40.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No16c121.79$20 inLost-$2036527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No31c111.98$35 inLost-$34.7715924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No25c100$25 inLost-$255343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No40c100$40 inLost-$404351.2%22 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes56c100$56 inWon+$447943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No29c85.22$25 inLost-$24.715928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes60c80$48 inWon+$322254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c68$11 inLost-$10.881,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No31c55.53$17 inLost-$17.0413167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes61c53.07$32 inWon+$20.7417633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No31c45.24$14 inLost-$14.1410244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9c…1bd6backed No34c44$15 inLost-$151838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4c…3486backed Yes66c40$27 inWon+$13.52821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes65c29.35$19 inWon+$10.332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9d…2835backed Yes72c27.85$20 inWon+$7.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes64c27.47$18 inWon+$9.89560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed No55c27.11$15 inLost-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes66c20$13 inWon+$6.84438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.