TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90ba…8c56

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 35.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT4632.6%15 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.84
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$70.2
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Raptors vs. Warriorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$85
Cavaliers vs. Clippersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Bucks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$711Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$189
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$986Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+47.5%+$468.4
76ers vs. Rocketsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Raptors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Hawks vs. Netsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Wizards vs. Nuggetsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$619.03
Heat vs. Grizzliesbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Celtics vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.8
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Mavericks vs. Rocketsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Nets vs. Bullsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$63
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.97
Clippers vs. Heatbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$55.44
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.9
Bucks vs. Pacersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.9
Knicks vs. Kingsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$84
Mavericks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.34
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$114
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$26
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.83
Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.01
Will Everton win on 2025-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Ipswich win on 2025-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.12
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+56.6%+$1,265
Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,014Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+100%+$3,014.45
Will Ipswich win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Tottenham win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$17.79
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$27.9
All 14 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2025, EDT147.1%1 W · 13 L-5.2wins-0.37per pick44cpaid-88.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah vs. Krakenbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.5
Predators vs. Ducksbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.36
Capitals vs. Kingsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Blackhawks vs. Sharksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Rangers vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
Lightning vs. Flyersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.5
Canadiens vs. Krakenbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Sabres vs. Red Wingsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Stars vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$92
Kings vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.68
Blackhawks vs. Predatorsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$69.87
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanchebacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Canadiens vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+61.3%+$152
Flames vs. Starsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$700.08
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.2
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$133
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.4
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.82
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.99
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$198
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$949Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+37%+$351
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+86.7%+$92.87
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+195.2%+$91.05
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$854Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$854
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$62
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.79
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+301.5%+$3,249.35
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$461Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$137.77
Yoon released from custody before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$44
All 8 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.8
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.9
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.