Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x140b38e477f07291273c8ee17e752a68f746584651f95e40e74b7386152f1abb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 10c | 39,480$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.37 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 4,376$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,264$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…09c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 1,472$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89c…6659backed Yes | 9c | 766.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab87…badabacked Yes | 8c | 639.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 7c | 629.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…efc0backed Yes | 8c | 495.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 7c | 461.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 6c | 294.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 8c | 285$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 7c | 279.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…6438backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…5d78backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ce…a4d7backed Yes | 9c | 237.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…bb87backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305a…fcd5backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 9c | 162.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d63dbacked Yes | 8c | 158.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…8c50backed Yes | 10c | 151.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…aeecbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd930…2787backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…2c44backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…8c56backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.