Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde5a47bb6fd30f67b416e39312b9e782c4cd65bff901a5f5b19f01348209c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 15c | 6,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,794$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b30…30cfbacked Yes | 14c | 2,170$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 12c | 999.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 15c | 466.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…efc0backed Yes | 13c | 446.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 12c | 205.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Yes | 13c | 194$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…5d78backed Yes | 9c | 163.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…bb87backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…a3c4backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7f…2438backed Yes | 13c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-01?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.