TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,079,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,970,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,079,947 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,419 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes76c251,406$190,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,852.861833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes79c240,234$189,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,963.683119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No50c148,051$73,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,433.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes57c138,529$78,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,543.3212927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes53c135,347$71,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,448.744852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5baa…d1b0backed Yes52c112,136$58,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,937.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc055…1299backed No48c112,136$53,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,937.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No8c110,026$8,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,448.16850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+239.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes39c104,463$41,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,324.594459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No16c103,322$16,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,581.06729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cd5…e030backed Yes64c92,471$58,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,590.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No18c91,705$16,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,187.913839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b8…f0cbbacked No74c84,314$62,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,604.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes39c72,070$27,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,197.253933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No12c72,049$8,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,908.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed No48c65,416$31,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,213.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes58c56,551$32,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,872.11060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No67c55,604$37,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,404.83537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7307…6475backed Yes67c53,236$35,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,440.43425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes76c52,821$40,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,534.011258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes56c52,724$29,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,044.483953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No52c47,198$24,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,460.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed No49c45,896$22,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,410.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No44c43,938$19,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,364.482347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…cf0fbacked No36c42,368$15,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,355.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No22c39,851$8,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,608.07837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No55c34,835$19,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,004.341060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No72c33,535$24,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,139.193164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No41c32,568$13,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,201.7123435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No42c29,671$12,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,575.522965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No47c29,399$13,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,710.7126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes27c29,125$7,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,210.762055%11 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes47c28,614$13,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,030.7310625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes65c28,596$18,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,057.32638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes68c28,210$19,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,890.4811647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1923…3b76backed No26c28,141$7,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,447.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No19c27,551$5,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,240.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3593…7314backed Yes45c27,470$12,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,241.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No65c27,449$17,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,968.538247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes18c26,985$4,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,234.583215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No20c26,286$5,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,287.628725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes59c26,035$15,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,665.851526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes55c25,889$14,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,546.2110137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No70c25,774$18,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,149.512544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe34a…5e71backed No37c25,315$9,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,258.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-84.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No4c25,066$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.41170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6155…7ebbbacked Yes44c24,691$10,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,728.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa412…5230backed No0c23,855$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes59c23,749$13,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,828.082157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No25c23,200$5,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,905.692665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cdf…19ccbacked No49c23,106$11,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,395.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes52c22,549$11,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,873.181369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick41cpaid+65%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf70…d4a0backed Yes52c22,343$11,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,619.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes63c22,206$13,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,269.764429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes33c21,343$7,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,234.244450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes47c21,250$9,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,343.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No23c20,814$4,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,697.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes62c20,408$12,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,750.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+191.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ab7…d178backed No0c20,388$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes78c20,369$15,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,415.921353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba99…2a27backed Yes71c20,188$14,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,765.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No39c20,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.981060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No20c19,929$4,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,028.6715125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No15c19,108$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.337821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf28…7f92backed Yes74c18,575$13,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,789.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes57c18,225$10,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,867.243253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4092…6138backed No35c17,679$6,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,105.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No65c16,922$11,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,043.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3c…9218backed No49c16,148$7,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,990.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69d…40d4backed No31c15,210$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Yes42c14,582$6,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,487.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cea…4eccbacked No38c14,572$5,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,588.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes17c14,505$2,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,994.19712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes22c14,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,9401127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2a5…f001backed No4c13,979$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No79c13,398$10,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,573.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No43c13,218$5,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,704.09911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-85.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes62c13,128$8,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No76c13,032$9,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,870.124156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes76c12,965$9,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.221428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No28c12,748$3,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,520.58825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed No42c12,731$5,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,380.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b5…590cbacked No26c12,728$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc753…3d20backed Yes66c12,591$8,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,320.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed No37c12,284$4,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,486.791414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed No65c12,000$7,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,749.85977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No23c11,980$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.391442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes74c11,949$8,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.62330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6130…144abacked Yes40c11,942$4,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,112.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes59c11,679$6,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,810.27988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe465…ea00backed No35c11,204$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,925.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No23c11,127$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.786336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No28c11,017$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No1c10,700$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.561030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d52…50e6backed No31c10,684$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x910c…d7a7backed No28c10,630$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No44c10,621$4,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,646.5614456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed No44c10,519$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,664.811520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No45c10,471$4,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.2824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16d5…5e0cbacked Yes61c10,007$6,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,952.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.