Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a5acfebe01d8a2dd73693dc7646e8144a6c611cac2a438b69c700dd979a911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 9,788$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.36 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,096$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.72 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 4c | 6,601$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 5c | 6,375$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 6,340$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.71 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 6c | 5,584$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,397$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 4c | 5,002$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 14c | 4,530$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.4 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 4,516$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,023$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 3,709$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 5c | 3,271$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 6c | 3,168$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.51 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…f62abacked Yes | 3c | 3,005$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 13c | 2,660$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.8 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 15c | 2,493$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.58 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 2,438$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,367$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 5c | 2,182$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 2,007$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 5c | 1,899$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…ef50backed Yes | 1c | 1,866$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…cca7backed Yes | 5c | 1,829$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 13c | 1,666$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,636$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 3c | 1,565$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…c9e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed Yes | 3c | 1,366$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…ecf6backed Yes | 4c | 1,096$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…66c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 3c | 1,032$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 3c | 1,024$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed Yes | 23c | 910$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 3c | 900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 2c | 839.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ad…43f2backed Yes | 7c | 820.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 3c | 811.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 4c | 810$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 60c | 802.01$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.21 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 5c | 800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 799.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 7c | 786.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…2da9backed Yes | 6c | 781.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 9c | 779.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 749.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 733.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 3c | 727$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 634.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 630$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked Yes | 3c | 605.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 3c | 578.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 571.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…523ebacked Yes | 4c | 552.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 511$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 490.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes | 3c | 486.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 5c | 458.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 5c | 450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 5c | 406.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…12aabacked Yes | 4c | 380.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…1771backed Yes | 6c | 321.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…0118backed Yes | 4c | 319.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2182…e3d7backed Yes | 3c | 317.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 5c | 310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 4c | 301.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…8c56backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…66d1backed Yes | 7c | 296.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a6…b961backed Yes | 9c | 252.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…89f2backed Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508c…3449backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…92f1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…3f46backed No | 80c | 199.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 32c | 144.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…8fe8backed No | 78c | 128.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 123$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 26c | 119.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…0fb3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…aa3ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5d…bafabacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.