Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Bitcoin all time high before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b7e9bdbb15ca8a079bdb5c4938f878382b17913f0fb3b39c6f036225e6f79ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf21…8371backed No | 24c | 45,792$10,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,943.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 80c | 17,056$13,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.18 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…a7afbacked Yes | 76c | 10,500$7,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed No | 16c | 8,437$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2bfcbacked Yes | 77c | 4,400$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 77c | 4,400$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.5 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 21c | 4,223$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 76c | 3,700$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.5 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 2,630$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.89 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 40c | 2,027$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.18 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1938…8e37backed No | 20c | 1,517$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 17c | 1,500$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.22 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 21c | 1,458$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 1,429$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.77 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 18c | 1,334$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,293$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…9f55backed No | 14c | 1,100$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…a055backed No | 18c | 1,099$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 11c | 1,045$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 17c | 998.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 14c | 900$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…911dbacked No | 15c | 890$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…bcebbacked No | 16c | 781$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 20c | 686.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 14c | 673.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed No | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…e808backed No | 17c | 583.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked No | 24c | 515.85$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…ffe8backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…c0e9backed No | 20c | 390$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 379$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…ec7cbacked No | 31c | 334.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…19a1backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…9558backed No | 22c | 282.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…3abdbacked No | 18c | 270.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 22c | 229.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 14c | 219.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 17c | 208.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…711abacked No | 18c | 196.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 9c | 177.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed No | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 17c | 157.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…2be5backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…2661backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…b793backed No | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdede…df6cbacked No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…a105backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked No | 33c | 92.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…b23bbacked No | 22c | 88.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…dce1backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…3cc3backed No | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 72c | 55.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…67bcbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…8963backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 23c | 43.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…d7a6backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…8a1fbacked Yes | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.