Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x640938ae857aa2dfaa5aeb2af07ec853ab0eec5395a5d4ab1c31842f1d3ab271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,555,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,696,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,555,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 645 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 37c | 103,043$38,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,455.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 57c | 101,373$58,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,307.97 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 77c | 64,784$49,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,079.88 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 77c | 61,165$47,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,061.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 44c | 52,996$23,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,149.29 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4511…3efebacked Yes | 49c | 37,152$18,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,947.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…ce4ebacked No | 51c | 37,152$18,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,947.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 68c | 33,339$22,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,657.38 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…1f5cbacked Yes | 34c | 32,109$10,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,191.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd085…df33backed No | 66c | 32,109$21,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,191.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…62b4backed Yes | 35c | 30,528$10,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,843.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…e647backed No | 65c | 30,528$19,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,843.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…9b16backed No | 58c | 29,285$16,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,985.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…bd1bbacked Yes | 42c | 29,285$12,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,985.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…670fbacked No | 51c | 26,633$13,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,582.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…adb0backed Yes | 49c | 26,633$13,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,582.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 35c | 25,162$8,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,809.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 62c | 24,749$15,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,293.46 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…d930backed No | 21c | 24,338$5,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,026.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 31c | 20,062$6,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,219.83 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 35c | 18,684$6,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,453.18 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 78c | 16,804$13,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,732.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 16c | 15,938$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 74c | 15,454$11,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,016.83 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked No | 19c | 14,626$2,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,797.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5148…cd81backed Yes | 51c | 14,281$7,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,936.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 76c | 13,291$10,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.89 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…5a4bbacked Yes | 51c | 12,500$6,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 76c | 12,180$9,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,884.66 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 36c | 11,746$4,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.01 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 13c | 11,086$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.74 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 57c | 11,016$6,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,283.78 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 21c | 10,249$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.78 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 48c | 9,453$4,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,958.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 10c | 9,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 41c | 8,567$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 74c | 8,541$6,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 46c | 8,308$3,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,486.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…c864backed Yes | 58c | 8,192$4,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,454.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 62c | 8,146$5,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb0…c007backed No | 7c | 8,045$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 42c | 8,000$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 12c | 7,900$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 68c | 7,893$5,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.51 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 59c | 7,312$4,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 76c | 6,746$5,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…0550backed Yes | 78c | 6,137$4,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 37c | 6,049$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.24 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 56c | 6,000$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed No | 57c | 5,905$3,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,341.17 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…ad89backed Yes | 76c | 5,833$4,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 39c | 5,602$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.57 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…553bbacked No | 51c | 5,598$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 45c | 5,560$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,070.7 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 72c | 5,498$3,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.81 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…6ad3backed Yes | 51c | 4,800$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…8d0bbacked No | 53c | 4,751$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 54c | 4,634$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.49 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 15c | 4,625$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.76 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 20c | 4,550$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.14 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 47c | 4,500$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 33c | 4,468$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.68 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 22c | 4,452$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.89 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…9f78backed No | 34c | 4,375$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 67c | 4,327$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.49 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 75c | 4,327$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…a461backed No | 12c | 4,294$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…8997backed No | 24c | 4,209$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf252…8208backed Yes | 64c | 4,199$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 36c | 4,022$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…8ea6backed Yes | 78c | 4,002$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 40c | 3,970$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.66 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbe…74b6backed No | 8c | 3,895$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 15c | 3,884$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.55 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 35c | 3,866$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc83c…88d8backed Yes | 80c | 3,788$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 23c | 3,637$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.53 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 11c | 3,500$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 43c | 3,383$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.9 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 33c | 3,312$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.6 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 71c | 3,253$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 11c | 3,187$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 22c | 3,160$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 54c | 3,141$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.14 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 19c | 3,054$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.88 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 3,008$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 60c | 3,003$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.04 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 66c | 3,003$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.54 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked No | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…3900backed Yes | 73c | 2,985$2,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.04 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 12c | 2,892$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.81 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,883$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.46 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 25c | 2,829$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.84 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 48c | 2,706$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,669$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.77 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed No | 61c | 2,635$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 14c | 2,634$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.2 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 42c | 2,633$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by April 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.