Us Politics · resolved market
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52029a0c6c0706e911cd30c15cff8d6393a1f3130305300afb34158e5966177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,185,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,284,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,185,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 13c | 49,762$6,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,549.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b2…3aa1backed Yes | 19c | 38,000$7,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,219.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 18c | 21,443$3,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 6c | 20,632$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.37 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 10c | 17,875$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 18c | 15,562$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,815 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 15,109$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.45 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 20c | 11,621$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…68debacked Yes | 5c | 11,136$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…40fdbacked Yes | 10c | 10,806$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 9,042$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.18 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 8,632$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.46 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,792$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…b244backed Yes | 19c | 7,635$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.53 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…6634backed Yes | 20c | 7,355$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…bc21backed Yes | 13c | 7,045$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 7,003$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.05 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 11c | 6,956$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.96 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 6,941$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.11 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 6,293$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.11 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,118$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 7c | 6,000$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.44 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…c026backed Yes | 20c | 4,625$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 78c | 4,605$3,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.36 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 76c | 4,586$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 17c | 4,268$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 17c | 4,217$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed No | 80c | 4,000$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,000$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…1b38backed Yes | 4c | 3,980$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 18c | 3,870$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…920ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,843$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…5421backed Yes | 17c | 3,653$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,605$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 13c | 3,312$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 22c | 3,140$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.31 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…8ac0backed Yes | 4c | 3,040$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 74c | 2,998$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.52 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…dc96backed Yes | 5c | 2,960$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…34c8backed Yes | 18c | 2,847$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe318…9f70backed Yes | 18c | 2,787$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,734$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 19c | 2,725$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…469bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,661$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e46…e925backed Yes | 10c | 2,656$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…fe04backed Yes | 19c | 2,652$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,589$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 80c | 2,587$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.38 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…38cabacked Yes | 20c | 2,540$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 73c | 2,501$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.63 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…06d0backed Yes | 18c | 2,472$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a02…6991backed Yes | 30c | 2,352$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…8f0dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,311$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 21c | 2,212$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e9…81cdbacked Yes | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 21c | 2,150$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,124$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…6fffbacked Yes | 19c | 2,100$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,050$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…ed3abacked Yes | 21c | 1,852$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 1,739$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ab…a41fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,721$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 19c | 1,707$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.65 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 10c | 1,660$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 79c | 1,607$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.42 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…355dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,583$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,559$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…194cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,495$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +331%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…a0d0backed No | 80c | 1,440$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,421$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 1,402$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,400$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 19c | 1,383$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 78c | 1,300$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…39f3backed Yes | 20c | 1,238$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 24c | 1,172$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,170$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.28 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,166$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…a14ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,162$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…b949backed Yes | 18c | 1,149$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2113…81cfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,129$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 20c | 1,128$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,115$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…98b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…07d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,073$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 2c | 1,069$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 23c | 1,048$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5b…f1fbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,026$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,003$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…29bebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.