TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$301,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$279,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 458 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef9f…8924backed Yes22c35,073$7,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,880.162665.4%17 W · 9 L+10.8wins+0.41per pick24cpaid+149.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No70c34,544$24,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,219.815641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c15,515$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.6333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes33c11,875$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,928.77156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Yes12c8,514$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes20c8,130$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.512213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4826…d5c3backed No75c5,340$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No79c4,506$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.573663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes24c4,300$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.6633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f9…7889backed Yes27c3,757$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes32c3,300$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes24c3,067$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.37150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No78c3,047$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66911336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No67c2,858$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+49.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7232…a4b3backed Yes23c2,547$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5018…6108backed No79c2,541$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No62c2,484$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.433961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2761…4013backed Yes26c2,416$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes22c2,280$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.59319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1396…0a30backed Yes44c2,263$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc913…488bbacked Yes47c2,241$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.1240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x623e…2797backed Yes24c2,115$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3462…de48backed No78c2,027$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.49475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes30c1,932$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes20c1,700$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d1…a379backed Yes31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b22…3a61backed Yes10c1,586$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a68…7b56backed No63c1,574$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes35c1,568$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5552615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No57c1,560$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.3818445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeade…f26dbacked Yes11c1,547$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+126.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc880…8380backed Yes8c1,326$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-62.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c83…0f55backed Yes28c1,302$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,237$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.91765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes44c1,220$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-78.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xac7e…be9cbacked Yes25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96c…8dafbacked Yes18c1,193$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No77c1,165$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.912536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Yes44c1,131$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e51…3c15backed Yes5c1,116$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,108$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.65787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9b…934ebacked Yes24c1,035$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+229.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No74c1,030$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.062010%2 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-84.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No76c1,020$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.212631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Yes42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0231…45d0backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes21c999.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20815227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd27…2807backed No76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No77c999.99$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked Yes23c999.98$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c954.99$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.744111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef19…f419backed Yes28c900$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+316.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No77c899.96$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.994731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No73c857.52$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6915124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…9ba4backed No70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60af…49dabacked Yes23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No77c779.99$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.643641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf256…9728backed Yes25c777$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes30c770$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc44…11f6backed Yes22c768.18$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No70c755.96$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.232560%15 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No68c735$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.25250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed Yes23c713.43$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick29cpaid+280.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2d1…deabbacked Yes26c704.42$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No60c701.15$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.767250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No74c695.97$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.052347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No63c692.87$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.528331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dc0…4ee3backed Yes29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No70c678.39$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes34c667.35$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.151921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c621.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.821,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c615.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.761343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…cee2backed Yes8c609.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No72c599.99$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1684727.7%13 W · 34 L-13.0wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No72c599.98$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-8.0wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-61%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x85be…8a1fbacked Yes44c589.26$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No74c587.46$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.472445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21af…baedbacked Yes34c586.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e1…f652backed No79c573.78$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef67…2a33backed Yes17c571.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x234e…240bbacked Yes35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe375…b335backed Yes3c557.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No79c555$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.552356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+78.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8b14…2d9bbacked Yes28c552.08$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+230.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes24c550.75$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.693426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9b…c6f4backed Yes23c542.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes2c539.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x535e…3295backed Yes26c538.46$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes24c521.96$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.331127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e5…19a1backed No77c519.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…6a6ebacked Yes10c517.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes45c516.05$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes6c513$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes25c505$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1272114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd75…1bfebacked No54c504.44$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa659…1eaabacked No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeaa…e7efbacked Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.