Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4b85546e0e49cad0bccf254efe892312ca215c0e9e26dc0965753f45a2360f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $279,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 458 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 22c | 35,073$7,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,880.16 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +10.8wins | +0.41per pick | 24cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 70c | 34,544$24,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,219.81 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 15,515$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.63 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 33c | 11,875$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.77 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,514$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 20c | 8,130$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.51 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…d5c3backed No | 75c | 5,340$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 79c | 4,506$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.57 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 24c | 4,300$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f9…7889backed Yes | 27c | 3,757$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,300$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 24c | 3,067$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.37 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 78c | 3,047$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 67c | 2,858$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7232…a4b3backed Yes | 23c | 2,547$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed No | 79c | 2,541$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 62c | 2,484$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.43 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed Yes | 26c | 2,416$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 22c | 2,280$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.59 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…0a30backed Yes | 44c | 2,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…488bbacked Yes | 47c | 2,241$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623e…2797backed Yes | 24c | 2,115$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed No | 78c | 2,027$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,932$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 1,700$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed Yes | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…3a61backed Yes | 10c | 1,586$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a68…7b56backed No | 63c | 1,574$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,568$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 57c | 1,560$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.38 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…f26dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,547$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 8c | 1,326$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c83…0f55backed Yes | 28c | 1,302$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,237$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,220$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…be9cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…8dafbacked Yes | 18c | 1,193$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 77c | 1,165$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 44c | 1,131$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…3c15backed Yes | 5c | 1,116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 1,108$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9b…934ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,035$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +229.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 74c | 1,030$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.06 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 76c | 1,020$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 21c | 999.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 954.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.7 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…f419backed Yes | 28c | 900$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 77c | 899.96$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 73c | 857.52$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.69 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…9ba4backed No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…49dabacked Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 77c | 779.99$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…9728backed Yes | 25c | 777$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 30c | 770$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…11f6backed Yes | 22c | 768.18$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 70c | 755.96$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.23 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 68c | 735$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed Yes | 23c | 713.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +280.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…deabbacked Yes | 26c | 704.42$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 60c | 701.15$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.76 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 74c | 695.97$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 63c | 692.87$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.52 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc0…4ee3backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 70c | 678.39$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.47 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 34c | 667.35$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 621.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 615.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…cee2backed Yes | 8c | 609.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 72c | 599.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 599.98$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…8a1fbacked Yes | 44c | 589.26$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 74c | 587.46$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.47 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…baedbacked Yes | 34c | 586.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…f652backed No | 79c | 573.78$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 17c | 571.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…240bbacked Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…b335backed Yes | 3c | 557.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 79c | 555$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…2d9bbacked Yes | 28c | 552.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 24c | 550.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9b…c6f4backed Yes | 23c | 542.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 539.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3295backed Yes | 26c | 538.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 24c | 521.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…19a1backed No | 77c | 519.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…6a6ebacked Yes | 10c | 517.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 45c | 516.05$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 513$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 505$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd75…1bfebacked No | 54c | 504.44$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.