TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,984

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,756 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef9f…8924backed Yes14c16,760$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,364.132665.4%17 W · 9 L+10.8wins+0.41per pick24cpaid+149.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c7,275$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Yes15c4,430$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.43137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…c6eabacked Yes27c2,988$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13dc…eb83backed Yes16c2,580$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.78100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x535e…3295backed Yes18c1,953$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7676…ebe4backed Yes3c1,809$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae3…6c99backed Yes2c1,681$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes7c1,539$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2511529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes20c1,409$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.28150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0ef…4b16backed Yes15c1,306$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,049$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.18765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f0…d710backed No78c1,035$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick60cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x59d6…62c8backed Yes19c1,034$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes15c1,010$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes12c1,007$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.682213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa776…11c5backed Yes18c1,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef19…f419backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+316.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1367backed Yes10c997.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes10c936.08$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3312631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd725…e66ebacked Yes3c924.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234e…240bbacked Yes22c893.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c847$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes14c800$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10815227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1778…a03dbacked Yes21c795.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes22c732.12$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed No80c729.72$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.941338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c722.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.451428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x051a…bc58backed Yes5c712.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c675.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.191466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ff…3d33backed Yes16c644.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…6a6ebacked Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7130…70e4backed Yes17c604.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a1…c050backed Yes3c581.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d1…a379backed Yes19c528.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ded…cd48backed Yes15c527.1$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a60…8c52backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85be…8a1fbacked Yes24c482.1$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Yes8c469.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes3c465.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes6c459.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes31c432.51$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.76156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes7c426.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No73c414.38$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5218445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No79c362.82$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.482536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57fb…2cb6backed Yes20c352$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No79c344.41$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.972138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa7a…eebfbacked Yes18c341.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…bebdbacked Yes15c341.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes10c340$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02dc…a212backed Yes17c325.22$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c312.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.971343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes6c310.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…5ca6backed Yes19c309.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f34…d53fbacked Yes16c308.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f7…6932backed Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed Yes8c286.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.891241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes16c284.44$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.633426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…1203backed Yes7c284.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe71d…c75bbacked Yes18c278.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a7…3e32backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d7…11e0backed Yes22c270.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd273…03afbacked Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked No79c261.6$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No73c251.09$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.576832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c250.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8d4d…a334backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7610…c322backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341d…8553backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191d…9cafbacked Yes8c248.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb9…8fc4backed Yes6c248.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x086b…560ebacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab0…a9c1backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…722bbacked Yes15c195.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…91dabacked Yes13c188.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e8…efe5backed Yes20c186.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked Yes9c184$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00c…2b65backed Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+91.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Yes19c180$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-82%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1136…705ebacked Yes20c176.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef9…5840backed Yes15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes18c164.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+34.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No68c163.55$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.058331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes13c163.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-64.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b58…e80abacked Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes10c149.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a5…fe62backed Yes27c149.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c147.14$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.311172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b7…1622backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes18c140$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes21c139.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8633618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x190a…a2c4backed Yes10c137$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f9…1e9ebacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…a7cdbacked Yes16c128.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9a…0793backed Yes20c123.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.