Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb93bb91003512af07170d9da4dd80630724cf7097e0d75ddedaaccd7d9e88d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 14c | 16,760$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364.13 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +10.8wins | +0.41per pick | 24cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 7,275$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.8 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 15c | 4,430$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.43 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…c6eabacked Yes | 27c | 2,988$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…eb83backed Yes | 16c | 2,580$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3295backed Yes | 18c | 1,953$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ebe4backed Yes | 3c | 1,809$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…6c99backed Yes | 2c | 1,681$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 1,539$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 1,409$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.28 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…4b16backed Yes | 15c | 1,306$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,049$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…d710backed No | 78c | 1,035$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…62c8backed Yes | 19c | 1,034$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,010$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,007$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…11c5backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…f419backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1367backed Yes | 10c | 997.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 10c | 936.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…e66ebacked Yes | 3c | 924.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…240bbacked Yes | 22c | 893.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 847$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…a03dbacked Yes | 21c | 795.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 22c | 732.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed No | 80c | 729.72$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 722.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…bc58backed Yes | 5c | 712.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 675.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…3d33backed Yes | 16c | 644.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…6a6ebacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…70e4backed Yes | 17c | 604.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…c050backed Yes | 3c | 581.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed Yes | 19c | 528.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…cd48backed Yes | 15c | 527.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…8c52backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…8a1fbacked Yes | 24c | 482.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 8c | 469.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed Yes | 3c | 465.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 459.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 31c | 432.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 7c | 426.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 414.38$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 79c | 362.82$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…2cb6backed Yes | 20c | 352$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 79c | 344.41$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…eebfbacked Yes | 18c | 341.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…bebdbacked Yes | 15c | 341.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Yes | 17c | 325.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 312.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 6c | 310.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…5ca6backed Yes | 19c | 309.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…d53fbacked Yes | 16c | 308.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…6932backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 8c | 286.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 16c | 284.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…1203backed Yes | 7c | 284.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…c75bbacked Yes | 18c | 278.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…3e32backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…11e0backed Yes | 22c | 270.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…03afbacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked No | 79c | 261.6$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 251.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 250.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4d…a334backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…c322backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…8553backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…9cafbacked Yes | 8c | 248.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…8fc4backed Yes | 6c | 248.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086b…560ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…a9c1backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…722bbacked Yes | 15c | 195.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked Yes | 13c | 188.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…efe5backed Yes | 20c | 186.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 9c | 184$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…2b65backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…705ebacked Yes | 20c | 176.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…5840backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 164.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 68c | 163.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 13c | 163.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…e80abacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 10c | 149.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…fe62backed Yes | 27c | 149.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 147.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…1622backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…a2c4backed Yes | 10c | 137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f9…1e9ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a7cdbacked Yes | 16c | 128.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…0793backed Yes | 20c | 123.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.